Demographics and Country
Music Trends
William W.
Wade, Ph.D.[1]
Foster
Associates, Inc. Economics
810 Walker
Street
Columbia
TN 38401
931-490-0060
<wade@foster-tn.com>
Draft January 11, 2000
Trade rags and newspapers bemoan the slump in Country Music
album sales. SoundScan data show 1999 country album sales down 4.5 percent from
1998. The search is on for the new
Shania to refill the coffers of Music Row.
Homogenized
Country Music Missed the Market
The decline is no mystery. Country Music has been homogenized
to appeal to a declining target market—25-34 White demographic segment.
Is anybody looking at the changing demographics in America? Enrique Iglesias sang at the Rockefeller Center Christmas Tree lighting last month--not Garth Brooks. Jennifer Lopez sold more albums than all country artists but Shania and the Dixie Chicks, and Ricky Martin sold more than any of the country artists.
Station managers, program directors, and Music Row
executives who made recording and programming choices aimed at that critical
25-34 demographic cut failed to anticipate the 5 percent decline in Whites
25-34 in the last decade and rapid rise of Hispanics. Hispanics 25-34 increased
21 percent. The cumulative effect of this societal change is especially
apparent in music. Salsa albums are flying out the door; Country albums are
languishing.
Numbers
Show that Programming for 25-34 Audience is a Mistake
The Hispanic population grew at 3.7 percent annually over the last decade—over four times faster than Whites. Nearly 40% more Hispanics live in the U.S. today than a decade before. Large urban markets reveal even larger Hispanic concentration. Half of the residents of Los Angeles County will be Hispanic this year. Thirty percent of New York City is Hispanic. No mystery why Salsa is hot-hot-hot. FM107.9—in Spanish—is Number 1 in Los Angeles! They don’t play Country.
Makes you wonder what numbers music and radio executives
look at when they make their selections of the handful of artists who get
airplay. Programming country music to 25-34 White Females turns out to have
been a mistake. Fewer White Females are in the market today than 1990. Johnny
Rogriguez where were you when we needed you? (Oh well, if you were still
around, PDs would certainly “Pass [You] By,” even though yearend sales data
suggest that their air play decisions were “Born to Lose.”)
Forecasts show that the 25-34 trends will change only
slightly: Hispanics 25-34 will increase nearly 20 percent by 2010, while Whites
25-34 will remain about static. (Chart 2.) Salsa is here to stay! The 25-34
audience remains a poor market to bet Music Row on.
Whither
Country Music?
Unless Music Row is planning to crossover to Hispanic music,
a new market strategy is needed. Luckily, a different market remains ignored
and untapped. Music Row’s ability to capitalize on an obvious demographic trend
will make the difference—or not.
Look out for the Baby Boomers--the new target market. Whites
55-74 will grow even faster than Hispanics in the first decade of the 21st
Century, increasing 31 percent by 2010 compared to 21 percent. (Chart 2.) While this segment was nearly equal in size
to the Whites 25-34 in 1990—about 30 million--they outnumbered the younger
group in 1998, and will dominate the younger group by nearly 60 percent by 2010—48
million compared to 30 million. (Chart 3.)
Yes, Music City, old white guys can save your butt! “Old
Dogs,” for example, would sell to Boomers if it got any airplay. The Baby
Boomers had large effects on housing markets in earlier decades, continue to
have a large effect of financial markets, and are having a large effect on
recreation markets. They grew up on Waylon, Willy and the Boys; they have
bucks; they play CDs in their RVs; and there are more of them than White
Females 25-34. You can bet 16th
Avenue that this segment of society is not interested in hearing a “15 artists”
play list.
Baby Boomers’ clout suggests that Music Row’s market
strategy aimed at finding “another Shania crossover” is not enough. Country
music diversity, not homogeneity, will sell albums to Baby Boomers—assuming the
albums get airplay. Broader play lists will sell more albums for more
artists and result in increased overall sales.
It’s the demographics, stupid. Where’s your sign?
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